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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still