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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."